Credit: Pat Krupa via Unsplash
On Tuesday 5th November 2024, one of the most turbulent United States presidential elections in recent memory came to an end. Issues ranged from assassination attempts and court cases, to internal fighting and stubbornness without even addressing the politics.
But the fact of the matter is that Donald Trump won the election, becoming the first person since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms as president of the United States of America.
In the lead-up to polling day, the opinion polls were at a dead heat, with neither candidate poised to win by a significant margin. Some of these polls expected Kamala Harris to just about win the presidency, leading by 1.3 points nationwide the day before the election.
Trump won the election convincingly, triumphing in all seven of the so-called “key swing states”. In contrast, Harris’ results failed to top Joe Biden’s 2020 results in every state.
There are a variety of reasons that Trump won the election:
Polling
The opinion polls failed to take into consideration one of the main aspects of Trump’s campaign — his claims to be against the ‘deep state.’
One could claim that Trump’s stance against the ‘deep state’ is somewhat comical, considering his position as a major property tycoon. He also took primary campaign advice from Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest man and owner of the social media platform X and space technology company SpaceX.
The fact of the matter is simple — those who believe the ‘deep state’ is targeting their preferred presidential candidate are unlikely to participate in opinion polls sponsored by companies they believe are part of said ‘deep state’.
In this light, it should come as no surprise that Trump won the election.
The opinion polls fail to consider those who do not believe in opinion polling — it may be stating the obvious, but it is true.
Campaigning
Both Trump and Harris took very different approaches to campaigning.
Trump entered with insane statements such as “the Haitians are eating the pets”, using them to generate controversy and outrage to fuel support, as well as an anti-establishment attitude and his notorious bravado.
Harris used memes, celebrity endorsements and her image to harbour support for her campaign, primarily targeting first-time voters and women.
The Pew Research Centre polling concluded that the three main issues in the election amongst all voters were inflation, immigration, and job availability. Amongst Trump Supporters, 82 percent of them believed inflation to be very important, compared to just 39 percent of Harris supporters.
The primary issues addressed by Trump throughout his campaign generally aligned closer to the national issues of importance than those of Harris, meaning that even though Trump’s comments were outrageous, the people thought he was addressing what they were worried about.
Meanwhile, the Harris campaign was hampered by Biden’s delayed decision to drop out of the race, damaging her campaign and giving her a shorter timeframe to create her own policies.
At the same time, Harris relied heavily on memes and celebrity endorsements, such as the ‘Harris is Brat’ campaign, and dedicated a lot of attention towards the Israel-Palestine conflict, but would often neglect to mention anything to do with the betterment of the country.
It could be seen that the Harris campaign was banking on young voters coming out in force to win the election, leaving behind the older generations who are often the most reliable voters.
Representation
Many Americans see the new brand of the Democrat Party as elitist and ignoring the working class.
This view that the Democrats are an elitist party, combined with lack of trust in opinion polls, should be a key indicator in explaining the surge in Trump support on the day of the election.
Trump made significant gains in key demographics such as the Hispanic/Latino male vote and those aged 18-29, compounded with a gain of six percent in young men and a gain of eight percent in people with no college degree.
One NBC poll says that 54 percent of men voted for Trump, up a percent from the 2020 election.
Trump’s large number of votes from young men came down to one thing: representation. Trump knew how to appeal to this audience by appearing on popular podcasts such as The Joe Rogan Experience.
There is a growing discontent in the young male demographic stemming from beliefs that they are being ignored in mainstream politics, as well as a perceived lack of support for mental health issues.
Understanding these factors, young men overwhelmingly turning out to vote for Trump is because they feel represented by him, and don’t see Harris as a viable alternative. Trump’s appearances on self-help podcasts and styling himself as a self-made businessman appeal to many young men want, whilst the Democrats were seen as making no attempt all to appeal to this demographic whatsoever.
Trump also gained support amongst the Black, Latino, and female demographics.
Conclusion
Overall, the Democrats lost the election by hinging their hopes on a leader not chosen by the party, but by a select few individuals. Their campaign relied heavily on memes and celebrity endorsements, and forgetting key demographics ultimately created the image that they did not care about huge swathes of the population.
Trump is an imperfect and dangerous candidate for America, but he knew how to create the idea that he stood for the people and address key issues; it was that representation for the forgotten demographics that ultimately won him the election.
The only positive for the Democrats is that Trump has now used his two terms as president. The 2028 Presidential Election will be their time to regroup, recover, and fight to win back a place in the White House.
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