December 8, 2024…a date that will never be forgotten. The regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fell at the hands of rebel forces in a thirteen-day struggle across the country, ending in the capital city of Damascus.

This insurgency has toppled Assad, who has been in power since 2000, ending 54 years of brutal rule at the hands of the Assad Family. The Assad family came from the Alawite minority of Syria, a branch of Shia Islam. Bashar al-Assad himself studied medicine in London.

Nobody in Syria or experts from around the world has any consensus on what will happen regarding the future of the state and Assad. However, the effects of the insurgency have had repercussions both within Syria and with its foes, allies and other global powers. This article will aim to explain who has been affected by certain events and possible actions in the future.

Bashar al-Assad

The leader of the former Syrian Regime came to power in 2000, and his family have ruled the country as a dictatorship for the last 54 years. Assad himself has ruled the state, backed by Iran and Russia, with an iron fist since he took over, brutally arresting, torturing, and imprisoning anyone who dared speak out and question his regime.

The Assad family have come from the small Alawite community in Syria, a smaller branch of Shia Islam and this has helped them to forge ties with regional powers such as Iran.

Assad and the government forces were left surprised by the thirteen-day insurgency with reports of government forces fleeing battles and deserting the army.

At the start of Assad’s reign, he aimed to position himself as a peaceful world leader and held visits for former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair. However, after the Arab Spring revolutions across the Arab world in 2011, he became more authoritarian and crackdowns on dissidents increased.

Currently, the Assad regime is in tatters. Their power in Syria has disappeared at the hands of the rebels and Assad and his extended family have fled to Russia and are living in the range of properties they own in Moscow.

Mohammed Al-Bashir

Al-Bashir is the leader of the main insurgency rebel group in Syria, Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS). The rebel group is supported by Türkiye. In 2016, HTS separated from Al-Qaeda, which it had been previously been a part of.  

Al-Bashir served originally as the head of administration for the HTS whilst also as the political head for the Syrian Salvation Government – the political wing of the HTS.

While little is known about how the HTS will rule Syria or how long they will be in charge of the State, there are some problems and fears amongst their neighbours and Western governments.

Firstly, there are fears that the HTS could enact fundamentalist laws in Syria in a similar fashion to ISIS in Afghanistan. This could cause potential problems for any country trying to normalise relationships with the new government.

Secondly, many countries around the world consider the HTS as terrorists and may be hesitant to normalise relations with people they see as terrorists.

Israel

Israel has taken events in Syria as a way to shore up its territory and defences on the border with Syria and in the ‘Golan Heights’ that the United Nations say it occupies. Israel says it will stay on Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights throughout the winter.

Since the HTS took over Syria, Israel has reported 250 air strikes on Syrian military infrastructure and also on Syria’s naval ports. The idea here was to eliminate anything the rebels could use to attack Israel before the HTS got to these bases.

Israel has also advanced its military into Syrian territory, taking control of a UN-enforced buffer zone in the Golan Heights. Israel originally seized the Golan Heights in 1967 and annexed them in 1981.

Russia

Russia has had a difficult week in Syria. Its biggest regional ally in the Middle East has fallen and they have had to rescue its leader.

Moscow has had close ties to the Assad regime, constantly funding them and helping them out militarily. Despite recent events within Syria, Russia has announced it will keep a small presence in Syria and has no plans to completely evacuate the region.

Russia’s main fear will be how the fall of one of its key regional allies will affect relationships with others. Fears that relationships of further strain with Iran will not help internal problems as Vladimir Putin continues his invasion of Ukraine. This continuation of conflict will provide Putin with some much-needed cover internally in Russia as he can continue to claim he is doing well as president.

Türkiye

Türkiye has seemingly benefited from the fall of the Assad Regime. Relations with the ruling parties in Syria have been frosty for a long time now.

Syria and Türkiye have been fighting each other on the border region for some time now. This is mainly due to border disputes and Syria’s ties to Russia. The fighting escalated in 2020 with Türkiye shooting down Syrian government planes over the border town of Idlib.

Now that the Turkish backed rebels and the HTS have come to power in Syria there are now growing hopes in Ankara that relationships between Erdogan and the HTS could build into lasting positive Turkish-Syrian relations and could help to build peace in Syria.

Iran

By far, the external state with the most to lose in the recent Syrian insurgency has been the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Tehran has heavily invested in the Assad regime, providing finances, weapons and military support to them. However, Iran has been loosening its influence in Syria for the last couple of months.

Iran has been a key backer of Assad since the 2011 Syrian Civil War, providing materials to help the government forces fight rebels and rebuild the country. However, its influence has been weakened after Israeli airstrikes killed senior government officials in the Iranian Embassy in Damascus.

Overall, events in Syria for Iran have been a huge issue for its so-called “Axis of Resistance” being used in its war with Israel.

What Happens Next

The future is unknown. Syria is still split into many different parts each with its wars, insurgencies and different groups. Fears that the HTS may be no better than the Assad regime are constant among Western states looking to build relations with the new Syrian Government.

Israel and Türkiye have benefited from the possibility for better relations, safer borders and lessened fears of any Syrian military strikes in Israeli or Turkish territory. Both Tel-Aviv and Ankara have launched airstrikes and seized territory.

On the other side of the debate on the future, Russia and Iran have lost massive amounts of international political power and potential returns on Investment in Syria have been shattered.

Russia will now have to focus on its war in Ukraine to win back internal support and supplies lost in Syria. Iran’s allies have been destroyed whilst Tehran’s other proxies in the region (such as Hezbollah in Lebanon) have been weakened by Israeli strikes and border conflicts in the area.